{"id":778,"date":"2013-02-06T11:54:44","date_gmt":"2013-02-06T11:54:44","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/kevinanderson.info\/blog\/?p=778"},"modified":"2013-04-12T16:08:45","modified_gmt":"2013-04-12T16:08:45","slug":"climate-policy-based-on-naive-assumptions-modelling-for-a-2c-target","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"http:\/\/kevinanderson.info\/blog\/climate-policy-based-on-naive-assumptions-modelling-for-a-2c-target\/","title":{"rendered":"Climate policy based on naive assumptions in modelling the 2\u00b0C target"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>6 Feb 2013 \u00a0<a href=\"http:\/\/environmentalresearchweb.org\/cws\/article\/opinion\/52289\">Climate policy based on naive assumptions<\/a>\u00a0\u00a0<strong>environmentalresearchweb<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Liz Kalaugher, editor of the Institute of Physics&#8217;\u00a0<cite>environmentalresearchweb, <\/cite>reports on the Cabot 2012 Annual Lecture<span style=\"font-style: italic;\"> &#8211;<\/span><em>\u00a0&#8220;Real clothes for the emperor: facing the challenges of climate change&#8221;.<\/em><\/p>\n<p>In his presentation Anderson argues scientists at the interface of climate and policy commonly use naive assumptions when modelling the 2\u00b0C target.<em> &#8220;I<\/em><em>ntegrated assessment models typically use similar and inappropriate sets of assumptions, and so repeatedly come up with the same narrow and fundamentally flawed answers.&#8221;<\/em> He suggests assumptions are massaged to give a more palatable picture.\u00a0<em>&#8220;We&#8217;ve underplayed everything we can \u2013 done exactly what the sceptics have said &#8211; but in reverse&#8221;<\/em>.<\/p>\n<p>Asked if those like James Hansen are too extreme, he notes how it is important to use extreme adjectives when they\u00a0appropriately reflect the &#8216;extreme&#8217; conclusions of our analysis. Many climate scientists use words like &#8220;challenging&#8221; and &#8220;doable&#8221; in relation to a 2\u00b0C limit for temperature rise &#8211; it all sounds too feasible and does not acknowledge the scale of radical change forthcoming from the \u00a0analysis.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>6 Feb 2013 \u00a0Climate policy based on naive assumptions\u00a0\u00a0environmentalresearchweb Liz Kalaugher, editor of the Institute of Physics&#8217;\u00a0environmentalresearchweb, reports on the Cabot 2012 Annual Lecture &#8211;\u00a0&#8220;Real clothes for the emperor: facing the challenges of climate change&#8221;. In his presentation Anderson argues scientists at the interface of climate and policy commonly use naive assumptions when modelling the 2\u00b0C target. &#8220;Integrated assessment models typically use similar and inappropriate sets of assumptions, and so repeatedly come up with the same narrow and fundamentally flawed answers.&#8221; He suggests assumptions are massaged to give a more palatable picture.\u00a0&#8220;We&#8217;ve underplayed everything we can \u2013 done exactly what\u2026<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mi_skip_tracking":false,"_s2mail":""},"categories":[6,8],"tags":[39,40],"blocksy_meta":{"styles_descriptor":{"styles":{"desktop":"","tablet":"","mobile":""},"google_fonts":[],"version":5}},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"http:\/\/kevinanderson.info\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/778"}],"collection":[{"href":"http:\/\/kevinanderson.info\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"http:\/\/kevinanderson.info\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/kevinanderson.info\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/kevinanderson.info\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=778"}],"version-history":[{"count":17,"href":"http:\/\/kevinanderson.info\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/778\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":904,"href":"http:\/\/kevinanderson.info\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/778\/revisions\/904"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"http:\/\/kevinanderson.info\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=778"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/kevinanderson.info\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=778"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/kevinanderson.info\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=778"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}