\u2026 the time for action is not at COP25, but now and during the intervening months \u2026<\/p>\n
Four weeks on and the allure of Christmas and New Year festivities fade into the grey light of a Manchester January \u2013 a fine backdrop for revisiting December\u2019s COP24<\/em><\/p>\n 1) An Orwellian tale: myths & hidden enemies<\/em> <\/strong> For me the fantasy-land of COP24 was epitomised at the UK\u2019s ever-busy Green is Great stand. Here, the nation that kick-started the fossil-fuel era, regaled passers-by with a heart-warming tale of rapidly falling emissions and a growing green economy. This cheerful narrative chimed with those desperate to believe these annual junkets are forging a decarbonised promise-land. Despite my cynicism, I was nevertheless surprised just how pervasive the UK\u2019s mirage had become.<\/p>\n Adjacent to Brexit Blighty\u2019s pavilion was the WWF\u2019s Panda Hub. Here I attended a session at which two British speakers offered advice to the New Zealand government on their forthcoming energy law. The mantra of the UK being at the vanguard of climate action was reiterated by a \u2018great & good\u2019 of the NGO world and by the Director of Policy at a prestigious climate change institute. A similar fable from a couple of Government stooges would not have been a surprise. But surely the NGO and academic communities should demonstrate greater integrity and a more discerning appraisal of government assertions? <\/p>\n If you ignore rising emissions from aviation and shipping along with those related to the UK\u2019s imports and exports, a chirpy yarn can be told. But then why not omit cars, cement production and other so-called \u201chard to decarbonise\u201d sectors? In reality, since 1990 carbon dioxide emissions associated with operating UK plc. have, in any meaningful sense, remained stubbornly static.[1] But let\u2019s not just pick on the UK. The same can be said of many self-avowed climate-progressive nations, Denmark, France and Sweden amongst them. And then there\u2019s evergreen Norway with emissions up 50% since 1990. <\/p>\n Sadly the subterfuge of these supposed progressives was conveniently hidden behind the new axis of climate-evil emerging in Katowice[2]: Trump\u2019s USA; MBS\u2019s Saudi; Putin\u2019s Russia; and the Emir\u2019s Kuwait \u2013 with Scott Morrison, Australia\u2019s prime minister, quietly sniggering from the side-lines. But surely no one really expected more from this quintet of regressives. It\u2019s the self-proclaimed paragons of virtue where the real intransigence (or absence of imagination) truly resides. When it comes to commitments made in Paris, the list of climate villains extends far and wide \u2013 with few if any world leaders escaping the net.<\/p>\n 2) Let them eat cake: a legacy of failure & escalating inequity<\/em> <\/strong> On mitigation, endless presentations infused with \u2018negative emissions\u2019, hints of geo-engineering and offsetting salved the conscience of Katowice\u2019s high-carbon delegates. But when it came to addressing issues of international equity and climate change, no such soothing balm was available. I left my brief foray into the murky realm of equity with the uneasy conclusion that, just as we have wilfully deluded ourselves over mitigation, so we are doing when it comes to issues of fairness and funding.<\/p>\n COP after COP has seen the principal of \u2018common but differentiated responsibility\u2019 (CBDR) weakened. Put simply, CBDR requires wealthier nations (i.e. greater financial capacity) with high-emissions per capita (i.e. greater relative historical responsibility for emissions) to \u201ctake the lead in combating climate change\u201d. This was a central tenet of the 1992 UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), and specifically committed such wealthy nations to peak their emissions before 2000. Virtually all failed to do so.<\/p>\n In 1997, the Kyoto Protocol established binding but weak emission targets for these nations, with the intention of tightening them in a subsequent \u2018commitment period\u2019. The all-important second \u2018commitment period\u2019 was never ratified \u2013 partly because a new \u2018regime\u2019 for international mitigation was anticipated.<\/p>\n In 2015, and to wide acclaim, the new regime emerged in the guise of the Paris Agreement. This saw the dismantling of any legally binding framework for wealthier high CO2\/capita countries to demonstrate leadership. Instead nations submitted voluntary bottom-up mitigation plans based on what they determined was their appropriate national responsibility for holding to a global rise of between 1.5 and 2\u00b0C. True to form, world leaders dispensed with any pretence of integrity, choosing instead to continue playing poker with physics & nature. Even under the most optimistic interpretation of the collective nonsense offered, the aggregate of world leaders\u2019 proposals aligned more with 3.5\u00b0C of warming than the 1.5 to 2\u00b0C that they had committed to. <\/p>\n So, has the shame of repeated failure on mitigation initiated greater international funding for those poorer nations vulnerable to climate impacts and in the early phases of establishing their energy systems?<\/p>\n In Copenhagen \u2018developing\u2019 nations agreed to produce mitigation plans, with the understanding that their \u201cmeans of implementation\u201d would attract financial support from the wealthier hi-emitters. Move on to Paris, and the wealthy nations flex their financial muscles and begin to backtrack. Rather than deliver a new and anticipated post-2020 finance package, they chose to extend what was supposed to be their $100billion per year \u2018floor\u2019 (i.e. starting value) out to 2025. To put that in perspective, $100billion equates to one twenty-eighth of the UK\u2019s annual GDP \u2013 and even this paltry sum is proving difficult to collect from rich nations. <\/p>\n Surely COP24 couldn\u2019t belittle poor nations further? Yet the Katowice text stoops to new lows. Funding initially intended to mobilise action on mitigation and adaptation is transposed into various financial instruments, with the very real prospect of economically burdening poorer countries with still more debt. <\/p>\n 3) Big Sister & \u2018badge-less\u2019 delegates<\/strong> As a professor in the gentle world of academia, I can speak wherever I\u2019m able to get a forum. I can explain my analysis in direct language that accurately reflects my judgements – free from any fear of being actively shut down. Certainly, there are academics (usually senior) who favour backstabbing over face to face engagement, but typically their comments are later relayed via their own (and more honest) Post-Doc & PhD colleagues. And if I find myself on a stage with climate Glitterati & accidently step on a few hi-emitting toes \u2013 the worse I face is an insincere smile and being crossed off their Christmas card list. But such bruising of egos and prestige is relatively harmless. Elsewhere however this is not the case \u2013 for both early career academics and civil society.<\/p>\n At COP24 I spoke at some length with both these groups. Not uncommonly early career researchers feared speaking out \u201cas it would affect their chances of funding\u201d. This specific example arose during a national side event on the miraculous low-carbon merits of coal and extractive industries. However, similar language is frequently used to describe how hierarchical structures in universities stifle open debate amongst researchers working on short-term contracts. Given senior academics have collectively and demonstrably failed to catalyse a meaningful mitigation agenda, fresh perspectives are sorely needed. Consequently, the new generation of academics and researchers should be encouraged to speak out, rather than be silenced and co-opted. <\/p>\n Turning to wider civil society, I hadn\u2019t realised just how tightly constrained their activities were, or that they are required to operate within clear rules. At first this appears not too unreasonable \u2013 but probe a bit further and the friendly face of the UNFCCC morphs into an Orwellian dictator. Whilst country and industry representatives can extol the unrivalled virtues of their policies and commercial ventures, – civil society is forced to resort to platitudes and oblique references. Directly questioning a rich oil-based regime\u2019s deceptions or even openly referring to Poland\u2019s addiction to \u201cdirty \u201ccoal is outlawed. By contrast eulogising on the wonders of clean coal is welcomed, as is praising a government\u2019s mitigation proposals \u2013 even if they are more in line with 4\u00b0C than the Paris commitments. <\/p>\n All this is itself disturbing. Whilst the negotiators haggle over the colour of the Titanic\u2019s deckchairs and how to minimise assistance for poorer nations, the UNFCCC\u2019s overlord ensures a manicured flow of platitudes. The clever trick here is to facilitate the occasional and highly choreographed protest. To those outside the COP bubble, such events support the impression of a healthy balanced debate. National negotiators with their parochial interests and hydrocarbon firms with their slick PR, all being held to account by civil society organisations maintaining a bigger-picture & long-term perspective. But that is far from the truth.<\/p>\n For civil-society groups getting an \u201cobserver\u201d status badge is an essential passport to the COPs. These are issued by the UNFCCC and can easily be revoked. Without \u2018badges\u2019, or worse still, by forcibly being \u201cde-badged\u201d (as it\u2019s referred to), civil society delegates have very limited opportunity to hold nations and companies to account or to put counter positions to the press. Such tight policing has a real impact in both diluting protests and, perhaps more disturbingly, enabling nations and companies to go relatively unchallenged. The latter would be less of a concern, if the eminent heads of NGOs were standing up to be counted. But over the years the relationship between the heads of many NGOs and senior company and government representatives has become all too cosy. Witness the UK Government\u2019s decoupling mantra forthcoming from the lips of one of the UK\u2019s highest profile NGO figures. <\/p>\n So what level of \u2018control\u2019 is typically exerted at COPs? To avoid compromising badges for those wishing to attend future UNFCCC events, I can\u2019t provide detail here, but the range is wide: highlighting the negative aspects of a country or company\u2019s proposals or activities; displaying temporary (unauthorised) signs; asking too challenging questions in side events; circulating \u2018negative\u2019 photographs or images; and countering official accounts. In brief, criticising a specific country, company or individual is not allowed in material circulated within the conference venue. Previously, some civil-society delegates have had to delete tweets and issue a UNFCCC dictated apology \u2013 or lose their badges. This year, and following a climate-related protest in Belgium, those involved were subsequently stopped from entering Poland and the Katowice COP; so much for the EU\u2019s freedom of speech and movement.<\/p>\n If the COP demonstrated significant headway towards delivering on the Paris agreement, perhaps there would be some argument for giving the process leeway to proceed unhindered by anything that may delay progress. But no amount of massaging by the policy-makers and the UNFCCC\u2019s elite can counter the brutal and damning judgement of the numbers. Twenty-four COPs on, annual carbon dioxide emissions are over 60% higher now than in 1990, and set to rise further by almost 3% in 2018. <\/p>\n 4) Conclusion<\/strong> COP can be likened to an ocean gyre with the \u2018axis of evil\u2019, Machiavellian subterfuge and na\u00efve optimism circulating with other climate flotsam and with nothing tangible escaping from it. Twenty-four COPs on, questions must surely be asked as to whether continuing with these high-carbon jamborees serves a worthwhile purpose or not? Thus far the incremental gains delivered by the yearly COPs are completely dwarfed by the annual build-up of atmospheric carbon emissions. In some respects the Paris Agreement hinted at a potential step change \u2013 but this moment of hope has quickly given way to Byzantine technocracy \u2013 the rulebook, stocktaking, financial scams, etc.; not yet a hint of mitigation or ethical conscience.<\/p>\n But is this jettisoning of COPs too simple? Perhaps international negotiations could run alongside strong bilateral agreements (e.g. China and the EU)? Stringent emission standards imposed on all imports and exports to these regions could potentially lead to a much more ambitious international agenda. The US provides an interesting and long-running model for this approach. For just over half a century, California has established increasingly tighter vehicle emission standards, each time quickly adopted at the federal level by the Environmental Protection Agency. Clearly internationalising such a model would have implications for WTO. But in 2018, and with global emissions still on the rise, perhaps now is the time for a profound political tipping point where meaningful mitigation takes precedent over political expediency?<\/p>\n Of course, the COPs are much more than simply a space for negotiations. They are where a significant swathe of the climate community comes together, with all the direct and tacit benefits physical engagement offers. But did Katowice, Fiji-Bonn, Marrakech or even Paris represent the pinnacle of high-quality and low carbon discussion and debate? Could we have done much better? Perhaps established regional COP hubs throughout the different continents of the world, all with seamless virtual links to each other and the central venue. Could journalists have listened, interviewed and written from their offices? Could civil society have engaged vociferously in their home nations whilst facilitating climate vulnerable communities in having their voices heard? Almost fifty years on from the first moon landing, are the challenges of delivering high-quality virtual engagement really beyond our ability to resolve?<\/p>\n If the COPs are to become part of the solution rather than continuing to contribute to the problem, then they need to undergo a fundamental transformation. Moreover the UNFCCC\u2019s elite needs to escape their Big Sister approach and embrace rather than endeavour to close down a wider constituency of voices. Neither of these will occur without considerable and ongoing pressure from those external to, as well as within, the UNFCCC. The time for action is not at COP25, but now and during the intervening months. <\/p>\n Lowlights of COP24<\/strong> Highlights of COP24<\/strong> [1]<\/strong> An actual fall of around 10% in 28 years (i.e. under 0.4% p.a.) For a review of the COP23 (Bonn-Fiji) see:Personal reflections on COP23<\/a> For a review of the Paris COP21 see: The hidden agenda: how veiled techno-utopias shore up the Paris Agreement<\/a> \u2026 the time for action is not at COP25, but now and during the intervening months \u2026 Four weeks on and the allure of Christmas and New Year festivities fade into the grey light of a Manchester January \u2013 a fine backdrop for revisiting December\u2019s COP24 1) An Orwellian tale: myths & hidden enemies A quick glance at COP24 suggests three steps forward and two steps back. But whilst to the na\u00efve optimist this may sound like progress, in reality it\u2019s yet another retrograde bound towards a climate abyss. As government negotiators play poker with the beauty of three billion\u2026<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mi_skip_tracking":false,"_s2mail":"yes"},"categories":[43,1],"tags":[],"blocksy_meta":{"styles_descriptor":{"styles":{"desktop":"","tablet":"","mobile":""},"google_fonts":[],"version":5}},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"http:\/\/kevinanderson.info\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1739"}],"collection":[{"href":"http:\/\/kevinanderson.info\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"http:\/\/kevinanderson.info\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/kevinanderson.info\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/kevinanderson.info\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=1739"}],"version-history":[{"count":6,"href":"http:\/\/kevinanderson.info\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1739\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":1745,"href":"http:\/\/kevinanderson.info\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1739\/revisions\/1745"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"http:\/\/kevinanderson.info\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=1739"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/kevinanderson.info\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=1739"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/kevinanderson.info\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=1739"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}
\nA quick glance at COP24 suggests three steps forward and two steps back. But whilst to the na\u00efve optimist this may sound like progress, in reality it\u2019s yet another retrograde bound towards a climate abyss. As government negotiators play poker with the beauty of three billion years of evolution, climate change emissions march on. This year with a stride 2.7% longer than last year \u2013 which itself was 1.6% longer than the year before. Whilst the reality is that every COP marks another step backwards, the hype of these extravaganzas gives the impression that we\u2019re forging a pathway towards a decarbonised future.<\/p>\n
\nHow is it that behind the glad-handing of policy makers and the mutterings of progress by many academics, NGOs and journalists, we continue to so fundamentally fail?<\/p>\n
\nFinally, I want to touch on something far outside my experience and probably one of the most damning aspects of the COPs that I\u2019ve become aware of. <\/p>\n
\nIt\u2019s a month now since I returned from the surreal world of COP24. I\u2019ve had time to flush out any residual and unsubstantiated optimism and remind myself that climate change is still a peripheral issue within the policy realm. The UK is an interesting litmus of just how fragmented government thinking is. A huge effort went into the UK\u2019s COP presence \u2013 yet back at home our Minister for Clean Growth celebrates the new Clair Ridge oil platform and its additional 50 thousand tonnes of CO2 per day (a quarter of a billion tonnes over its lifetime). Simultaneously, the government remains committed to a new shale gas revolution whilst plans are afoot for expanding Heathrow airport and the road network. <\/p>\n
\ni)<\/strong>\tSeveral climate glitterati & their entourages again jet in and parade around making vacuous noises. This would be a harmless aside if it were just a tasteless comedy act, but it is these carbon bloaters and their clamouring sycophants that set much of the agenda within which the rest of us work. Whilst they remain the conduit between the Davos mind-set and the research community, climate change will continue to be a failing techno-economic issue, ultimately bequeathed to future generations.
\nii)<\/strong>\tThe pathetic refusal of several nations to formally \u2018welcome\u2019 the IPCC\u2019s 1.5\u00b0C report (and I say this as someone who has serious reservations about the mitigation analysis within the report).
\niii)<\/strong>\tThe blatant travel-agency nature of many of the national pavilions \u2013 with the periodic glasses of bubbly and exotic nibbles undermining the seriousness of the issues we were supposed to be there to address.
\niv)<\/strong>\tThe level of co-option, with academics and NGOs all too often singing from official Hymn sheets.
\nv)<\/strong>\tThe absence of younger voices presenting and on panels.<\/p>\n
\ni)<\/strong>\tAmy Goodman and the excellent Democracy Now (DN) team providing a unique journalistic conduit between the COPs and the outside world. Certainly DN has a political leaning, but this is not hidden. Consequently, and regardless of political inclination, any discerning listener can engage with the rich and refreshingly diverse content of DN\u2019s reporting. For a candid grasp of just where we are (or are not) in addressing climate change Amy\u2019s full interviews give time to extend well beyond the polarising headlines preferred by many journalists and editors.
\nii)<\/strong>\tListening to John Schellnhuber call for \u201csystem change\u201d and \u201ca new narrative for modernity\u201d. John is arguably the most prestigious climate scientist present at COPs and the science darling of \u2018the great & the good\u2019 (from Merkel to the Pope). Whilst many others in Professor Schellnhuber\u2019s exalted position have long forgone their scientific integrity, John continues to voice his conclusions directly and without spin. I really can\u2019t exaggerate just how refreshing this is. I may not agree with all he has to say, but I know that what he is saying is carefully considered and sincere.
\niii)<\/strong>\tAt the other end of the academic and age spectrum was the ever-present voice of Greta Thunberg soaring like a descant above the monotonic mutterings of the status-quo choir. We need many more voices from her generation prepared to boldly call out the abysmal and ongoing failure of my generation. Applying Occam\u2019s razor to our delusional substitutes for action, this fifteen year old (now sixteen) revealed just how pathetic our efforts have been. In so doing Greta opened up space for a vociferous younger generation to force through a new and constructive dialogue. <\/p>\n
\n[2]<\/strong> The group of national leaders who refused to \u201cwelcome\u201d the IPCC special report into 1.5\u00b0C (SR1.5).<\/p>\n
\nAn edited version was published in the Conversation: Hope from Chaos: could political upheaval lead to a new green epoch<\/a><\/p>\n
\nAn edited version was published in Nature: Talks in the city of light generate more heat <\/a> <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"