{"id":1615,"date":"2017-08-24T10:37:24","date_gmt":"2017-08-24T10:37:24","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/kevinanderson.info\/blog\/?p=1615"},"modified":"2017-08-24T13:29:38","modified_gmt":"2017-08-24T13:29:38","slug":"what-if-negative-emission-technologies-nets-fail-at-scale-implications-of-the-paris-agreement-for-big-emitting-nations","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"http:\/\/kevinanderson.info\/blog\/what-if-negative-emission-technologies-nets-fail-at-scale-implications-of-the-paris-agreement-for-big-emitting-nations\/","title":{"rendered":"What if &#8216;negative emission technologies&#8217; (NETs) fail at scale: Implications of the Paris Agreement for big emitting nations"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>This new paper is published in Climate Policy and is available at:\u00a0<a href=\"http:\/\/www.tandfonline.com\/doi\/full\/10.1080\/14693062.2017.1346498\">http:\/\/www.tandfonline.com\/doi\/full\/10.1080\/14693062.2017.1346498<\/a>\u00a0and\u00a0<a href=\"http:\/\/dx.doi.org\/10.1080\/14693062.2017.1346498\">http:\/\/dx.doi.org\/10.1080\/14693062.2017.1346498<\/a><\/p>\n<p>A pre-edit version of the paper can be found at:\u00a0<a href=\"http:\/\/kevinanderson.info\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/08\/pdf-Pre-edit-of-What-if-NETs-fail-at-scale.pdf\">&#8216;What if NETs fail at scale&#8217; &#8211; pre-edit version of Climate Policy paper &#8211; August 2017<\/a><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-size: 1rem;\">Authors:\u00a0<\/span><span style=\"font-size: 1rem;\">Alice Larkin<\/span><span style=\"font-size: 1rem;\">, Jaise Kuriakose<\/span><span style=\"font-size: xx-small;\">,\u00a0<\/span><span style=\"font-size: 1rem;\">Maria Sharmina<\/span><span style=\"font-size: xx-small;\">,<\/span><span style=\"font-size: 1rem;\"> and Kevin Anderson<\/span><\/p>\n<p><strong style=\"font-size: 1rem;\">Abstract<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-size: 1rem;\">A cumulative emissions approach is increasingly used to inform mitigation policy. However, there are different interpretations of what \u20182\u00b0C\u2019 implies. Here it is argued that cost-optimisation models, commonly used to inform policy, typically underplay the urgency of 2\u00b0C mitigation. The alignment within many scenarios of optimistic assumptions on negative emissions technologies (NETs), with implausibly early peak emission dates and incremental short-term mitigation, delivers outcomes commensurate with 2\u00b0C commitments. In contrast, considering equity and socio-technical barriers to change, suggests a more challenging short-term agenda. To understand these different interpretations, short-term CO<\/span><sub>2<\/sub><span style=\"font-size: 1rem;\"> trends of the largest CO<\/span><sub>2<\/sub><span style=\"font-size: 1rem;\"> emitters, are assessed in relation to a constrained CO<\/span><sub>2<\/sub><span style=\"font-size: 1rem;\"> budget, coupled with a \u2018what if\u2019 assumption that negative emissions technologies fail at scale. The outcomes raise profound questions around high-level framings of mitigation policy. The paper concludes that applying even weak equity criteria, challenges the feasibility of maintaining a 50% chance of avoiding 2\u00b0C without urgent mitigation efforts in the short-term. This highlights a need for greater engagement with: (1) the equity dimension of the Paris Agreement, (2) the sensitivity of constrained carbon budgets to short-term trends and (3) the climate risks for society posed by an almost ubiquitous inclusion of NETs within 2\u00b0C scenarios.<\/span><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>This new paper is published in Climate Policy and is available at:\u00a0http:\/\/www.tandfonline.com\/doi\/full\/10.1080\/14693062.2017.1346498\u00a0and\u00a0http:\/\/dx.doi.org\/10.1080\/14693062.2017.1346498 A pre-edit version of the paper can be found at:\u00a0&#8216;What if NETs fail at scale&#8217; &#8211; pre-edit version of Climate Policy paper &#8211; August 2017 Authors:\u00a0Alice Larkin, Jaise Kuriakose,\u00a0Maria Sharmina, and Kevin Anderson Abstract A cumulative emissions approach is increasingly used to inform mitigation policy. However, there are different interpretations of what \u20182\u00b0C\u2019 implies. Here it is argued that cost-optimisation models, commonly used to inform policy, typically underplay the urgency of 2\u00b0C mitigation. The alignment within many scenarios of optimistic assumptions on negative emissions technologies (NETs), with implausibly\u2026<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mi_skip_tracking":false,"_s2mail":"yes"},"categories":[5,1],"tags":[],"blocksy_meta":{"styles_descriptor":{"styles":{"desktop":"","tablet":"","mobile":""},"google_fonts":[],"version":5}},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"http:\/\/kevinanderson.info\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1615"}],"collection":[{"href":"http:\/\/kevinanderson.info\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"http:\/\/kevinanderson.info\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/kevinanderson.info\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/kevinanderson.info\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=1615"}],"version-history":[{"count":10,"href":"http:\/\/kevinanderson.info\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1615\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":1622,"href":"http:\/\/kevinanderson.info\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1615\/revisions\/1622"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"http:\/\/kevinanderson.info\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=1615"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/kevinanderson.info\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=1615"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/kevinanderson.info\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=1615"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}