{"id":1348,"date":"2014-08-27T10:21:35","date_gmt":"2014-08-27T10:21:35","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/kevinanderson.info\/blog\/?p=1348"},"modified":"2014-08-27T10:28:53","modified_gmt":"2014-08-27T10:28:53","slug":"full-global-decarbonisation-of-energy-by-2034-and-probably-before","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"http:\/\/kevinanderson.info\/blog\/full-global-decarbonisation-of-energy-by-2034-and-probably-before\/","title":{"rendered":"Full global decarbonisation of energy before 2034*"},"content":{"rendered":"

This brief blog provides the\u00a0headline numbers underpinning my disagreement with Glen Peters’ (Aug 27<\/span>th<\/sup> 2014)<\/span>\u00a0estimate of the time available to remain within a 2\u00b0C\u00a0carbon budget of 1000GtCO2 (for the period 2011-2100).<\/span><\/p>\n

Glen tweets that:<\/strong>
\n<\/span>\u00a0\u201c<\/em>At current emissions rates it will take 30 yrs to emit enough CO2 to pass 2\u00b0C\u201d
\n<\/em>\u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 In a later tweet he notes …
\n<\/span>\u201cThe 30 years is 66% chance. About 1000GtCO2 from 2011, from IPCC WG1 SPM \u2026<\/em><\/p>\n

In contrast, I suggest:
\n<\/strong><\/span>–<\/strong> At current (2014) emission levels, the 1000Gt will be consumed in less than 23 years<\/strong>.<\/em>
\n<\/span>–<\/strong> But with CO<\/span>2<\/sub> certain to rise over the coming few years, then, at the likely 2020 emission level, there will\u00a0<\/span>be ~13.5 years<\/strong><\/em> until the full 2\u00b0C carbon<\/span>\u00a0budget will have been consumed; i.e. full decarbonisation of\u00a0<\/strong><\/em><\/span>energy before 2034.<\/strong><\/em>
\n<\/span>–<\/strong> This is a much more challenging decarbonisation agenda than Glen\u2019s 30yr figure suggests
\n<\/span>_______<\/span><\/p>\n

Background to the 23-year figure (from the end of 2014)
\n<\/strong>–<\/strong> CO<\/span>2<\/sub>\u00a0emissions in 2000 were 24.787Gt, in 2012 these had risen to 35.425Gt<\/span>1
\n<\/sup>–<\/strong> This is a mean growth rate of a little over 3% p.a. for 2000 to 2012; a period that included, arguably,\u00a0<\/span>the most severe global financial crisis since the Great Depression.
\n<\/span>–<\/strong> Assuming emissions have continued to grow at ~3% p.a., then emissions for this year (2014) are likely to be ~37.5Gt.
\n<\/span>–<\/strong> The IPCC’s 1000GtCO<\/span>2<\/sub> carbon budget is for the period 2011 to 2100.<\/span>
\n<\/span>–<\/strong> Emissions from 2011 to the end of 2014 (i.e. four months from now), will be ~144Gt,\u00a0leaving ~856Gt for the period 2015 to 2100.<\/span><\/p>\n

If emissions were to stabilise at the current (2014) level of ~37.5GtCO<\/span>2<\/sub>, the remaining 865Gt would be used up in 23 years; i.e. during 2037.<\/span><\/strong><\/em>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Background to the under 14-year figure (from the end of 2020)
\n<\/strong>– Given the Paris 2015 COP is, at best, seeking agreement on post 2020 mitigation, emissions\u00a0are\u00a0almost certain to grow over the coming few years.2<\/sup>
\n<\/span>– Assuming current emissions continue grow at ~3% p.a., then emissions for the year 2020\u00a0will<\/span>\u00a0be ~44.8GtCO<\/span>2<\/sub>.<\/span>
\n<\/span>–<\/strong> Following on from the above, by the end of 2020 in the region of 394Gt of the 1000Gt will have b<\/span>een emitted, leaving a budget of\u00a0 ~606GtCO<\/span>2<\/sub> for the period 2021 to 2100.<\/span><\/p>\n

If emissions were to stabilise at\u00a0the ‘likely’ 2020 emission level<\/span>\u00a0of ~45Gt, the remaining 606Gt would be used up in under 14\u00a0years, i.e. before 2034.
\n<\/span><\/strong><\/em>__________<\/span><\/p>\n

*<\/sup>\u00a0NB:<\/strong> if Annex 1 nations were to begin a programme of radically reducing their energy consumption (& hence emissions) over the coming decade, there may be scope for non-Annex 1 nations to continue emitting energy-related CO2<\/sub> out towards 2050<\/p>\n

1<\/sup><\/strong>\u00a0Figures taken from the Global Carbon Atlas http:\/\/www.globalcarbonatlas.org\/?q=emissions
\n<\/a>2<\/sup><\/strong>\u00a0It may well be that emissions growth\u00a0actually\u00a0exceeds the 2000-2012 mean level (~3% p.a.),
\nparticularly if the global economic\u00a0\u2018recovery\u2019 continues.<\/p>\n

To get an early response to Glen’s estimate, I have pulled the above analysis together in quick fashion; if there are any important errors (in the numbers or maths) please feel free to email me – thanks.<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

This brief blog provides the\u00a0headline numbers underpinning my disagreement with Glen Peters’ (Aug 27th 2014)\u00a0estimate of the time available to remain within a 2\u00b0C\u00a0carbon budget of 1000GtCO2 (for the period 2011-2100). Glen tweets that: \u00a0\u201cAt current emissions rates it will take 30 yrs to emit enough CO2 to pass 2\u00b0C\u201d \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 In a later tweet he notes … \u201cThe 30 years is 66% chance. About 1000GtCO2 from 2011, from IPCC WG1 SPM \u2026 In contrast, I suggest: – At current (2014) emission levels, the 1000Gt will be consumed in less than 23 years. – But with CO2 certain\u2026<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mi_skip_tracking":false,"_s2mail":"yes"},"categories":[43,1],"tags":[],"blocksy_meta":{"styles_descriptor":{"styles":{"desktop":"","tablet":"","mobile":""},"google_fonts":[],"version":5}},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"http:\/\/kevinanderson.info\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1348"}],"collection":[{"href":"http:\/\/kevinanderson.info\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"http:\/\/kevinanderson.info\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/kevinanderson.info\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/kevinanderson.info\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=1348"}],"version-history":[{"count":14,"href":"http:\/\/kevinanderson.info\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1348\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":1360,"href":"http:\/\/kevinanderson.info\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1348\/revisions\/1360"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"http:\/\/kevinanderson.info\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=1348"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/kevinanderson.info\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=1348"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/kevinanderson.info\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=1348"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}