{"id":1318,"date":"2014-06-05T17:41:12","date_gmt":"2014-06-05T17:41:12","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/kevinanderson.info\/blog\/?p=1318"},"modified":"2015-02-02T00:06:07","modified_gmt":"2015-02-02T00:06:07","slug":"an-inconvenient-truth-us-proposed-emission-cuts-too-little-too-late","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"http:\/\/kevinanderson.info\/blog\/an-inconvenient-truth-us-proposed-emission-cuts-too-little-too-late\/","title":{"rendered":"An inconvenient truth: US proposed emission cuts too little too late"},"content":{"rendered":"

June 2014 \u00a0A response to the US draft mandate to cut carbon emissions from its power sector\u00a0<\/strong>by 30% by 2030<\/strong> (c.f. 2005)<\/span><\/p>\n

Kevin Anderson<\/strong>1<\/span><\/strong>\u00a0<\/strong>and Dr Maria Sharmina<\/strong>2
\n<\/span><\/strong>1<\/span><\/strong>\u00a0\u00a0Professor of energy and climate change
\n<\/span>\u00a0 \u00a0Deputy director of the Tyndall Centre for climate change research
\n<\/span>2<\/span><\/strong>\u00a0<\/strong>\u00a0Research Associate
\n<\/span>\u00a0 \u00a0Tyndall Centre for climate change research<\/span><\/p>\n

Both are based in the School of mechanical, civil and aeronautical engineering at the University of Manchester
\n_________
\n<\/span>The maths accompanying obligations to \u201cavoid dangerous climate change\u201d demand fundamental change rather than rousing rhetoric and incremental action.<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

The announcement from the Obama administration that the United State\u2019s power sector would deliver a 30% reduction in emissions by 2030 was hailed by many as a breakthrough in meaningful action. John Kerry suggests the <\/span>\u201cUS is setting an example to the world on climate change\u201d<\/a> whilst Reuters lead on how the <\/span>\u201cU.S. unveils sweeping plan to slash power plant pollution\u201d<\/a> and the president of the World Resources Institute declares the proposals to be a <\/span>\u201cmomentous development\u201d<\/a>. Dig a little deeper and there is recognition that more still needs to be done. Bryony Worthington tweets <\/span>\u201cUS creeps towards comprehensive climate action plan. Level of cuts too low over too long a time period. Will need tightening. Just like EU\u201d<\/em><\/a> whilst Connie Hedegaard (European Commissioner for Climate Action) notes how <\/span>\u201cfor Paris to deliver what is needed to stay below a 2\u00b0C increase in global temperature, all countries, including the United States, must do even more than what this reduction trajectory indicates.\u201d<\/a><\/em>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

But how much more is needed from the US and international community to meet their repeated commitment\u00a0 \u201ct<\/em>o hold the increase in global temperature below 2 degrees Celsius\u201d?<\/em> And is the US proposal part of the solution or part of the problem?<\/p>\n

The United States’ plan to reduce power sector emissions by 30% by 2030 (c.f. 2005) is the jewel in the crown of US mitigation policies. Under current proposals <\/span>economy-wide<\/em> reductions in <\/span>total<\/em> emissions will be much less than 30%; Climate Action Tracker<\/a> (CAT) estimates emissions will be just 10% below their 2005 level. Yet even if <\/span>total<\/em> emissions were to follow the example of the power sector, they would still fall far short of the country\u2019s 2\u00b0C commitments enshrined in agreements from the Copenhagen Accord to the Camp David Declaration.<\/span><\/p>\n

The EU, with emissions per person just 50% of those for a typical US citizen, needs an across the board reduction of over <\/span>80% by 2030<\/a> (c.f. 2005)<\/span>1<\/sup> if it is to make its <\/span>fair<\/em> contribution to avoiding the 2\u00b0C characterisation of dangerous climate change. Given the higher per capita emissions of the US, reductions there would need to be greater still.<\/span><\/p>\n

Consequently, whilst Obama\u2019s proposition is certainly brave within the rarified political environment of Congress, it signals yet another wealthy nation whose weak domestic targets are fatally undermining international obligations around 2\u00b0C. The low level of ambition of the US, EU, Russia, China <\/span>et al<\/em> is why global emissions are set on a pathway much more aligned with a 4\u00b0C to 6\u00b0C\u00a0future (~<\/span>RCP8.5<\/a>) than the 2\u00b0C of our rhetorical targets. Moreover, given that temperatures relate to the cumulative build up of CO<\/span>2<\/sub> in the atmosphere, failure to radically reduce emissions in the short-term locks in higher temperatures and \u201cdangerous\u201d impacts, particularly for “<\/span>poorer populations<\/a>“<\/span>. Ramping up the mitigation effort post 2030 will simply be too late. This is a challenging message with implications for policy makers (and all of us) that we have thus far refused to countenance.<\/span><\/p>\n

So whilst the science and maths around 2\u00b0C provides an unequivocal basis for radical reductions in emissions from wealthier nations, the politics continues to deliver grand but ultimately ineffectual gestures. Politically Obama\u2019s proposal is certainly courageous and one for which he deserves credit. But scientifically, the 30% target and the collective acquiescence it has triggered, is a death sentence for many of tomorrow\u2019s more vulnerable communities.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u00a01.<\/sup> This assumes, in the aggregate, that non-Annex 1 nations a) significantly reduce their current rate of emissions growth b) peak\u00a0<\/span>their\u00a0emissions by 2025 c) reduce their emissions thereafter at around 7% p.a. For more detail see: <\/span><\/span>EU 2030 decarbonisation\u2026 : why so little science?<\/a>, Numerical basis for 80% decarbonisation<\/a> and\u00a0Beyond dangerous climate change<\/a>.<\/span><\/em><\/address>\n

 <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

June 2014 \u00a0A response to the US draft mandate to cut carbon emissions from its power sector\u00a0by 30% by 2030 (c.f. 2005) Kevin Anderson1\u00a0and Dr Maria Sharmina2 1\u00a0\u00a0Professor of energy and climate change \u00a0 \u00a0Deputy director of the Tyndall Centre for climate change research 2\u00a0\u00a0Research Associate \u00a0 \u00a0Tyndall Centre for climate change research Both are based in the School of mechanical, civil and aeronautical engineering at the University of Manchester _________ The maths accompanying obligations to \u201cavoid dangerous climate change\u201d demand fundamental change rather than rousing rhetoric and incremental action. The announcement from the Obama administration that the United State\u2019s\u2026<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mi_skip_tracking":false,"_s2mail":"yes"},"categories":[43],"tags":[],"blocksy_meta":{"styles_descriptor":{"styles":{"desktop":"","tablet":"","mobile":""},"google_fonts":[],"version":5}},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"http:\/\/kevinanderson.info\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1318"}],"collection":[{"href":"http:\/\/kevinanderson.info\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"http:\/\/kevinanderson.info\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/kevinanderson.info\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/kevinanderson.info\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=1318"}],"version-history":[{"count":9,"href":"http:\/\/kevinanderson.info\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1318\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":1447,"href":"http:\/\/kevinanderson.info\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1318\/revisions\/1447"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"http:\/\/kevinanderson.info\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=1318"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/kevinanderson.info\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=1318"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/kevinanderson.info\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=1318"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}