{"id":1187,"date":"2013-12-16T11:37:57","date_gmt":"2013-12-16T11:37:57","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/kevinanderson.info\/blog\/?p=1187"},"modified":"2014-11-19T10:41:54","modified_gmt":"2014-11-19T10:41:54","slug":"open-letter-to-the-eu-commission-president-about-the-unscientific-framing-of-its-2030-decarbonisation-target","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"http:\/\/kevinanderson.info\/blog\/open-letter-to-the-eu-commission-president-about-the-unscientific-framing-of-its-2030-decarbonisation-target\/","title":{"rendered":"Open Letter to the EU Commission president about the unscientific framing of its 2030 decarbonisation target"},"content":{"rendered":"

Below is an open letter (dated 13th Dec. 2013) to the President of the European Commission, Jos\u00e9 Manuel Barroso, outlining how, if the EU is to \u201cset in stone a commitment to cap the temperature increase at 2 degrees Celsius\u201d <\/em>it must double its proposed 2030 decarbonisation target.<\/p>\n

As the letter makes clear, for the EU to honour this commitment the Commission must find the courage to pursue an equitable and science-based 2030 decarbonisation target of around 80%. Anything less and the EU will renege on its 2\u00b0C commitments and, as the Commission rightly notes, bequeath to future generations a legacy of \u201cdevastating impacts\u201d<\/em>.<\/p>\n

The letter was,\u00a0amongst others,\u00a0copied to Commissioners Connie Hedegaard and G\u00fcnther Oettinger, and the UK Secretary of States for Energy and Climate Change (Ed Davey) and Foreign and Commonwealth Affairs (William Hague).<\/p>\n

A pdf copy of the letter is available at:\u00a0Letter (pdf) to President Barroso on 2030 decarbonisation – Dec 2013<\/a>. The letter builds on a range of work, most specifically a peer-reviewed Royal Society publication Beyond dangerous climate change<\/a> and an earlier article … why so little science<\/a>.<\/p>\n

*****************<\/p>\n

Mr. Jose Manuel Barroso<\/div>\n
\n

Office of the President
\nEuropean Commission
\nB-1049 Brussels<\/p>\n

RE:<\/span>\u00a0<\/strong>The EU 2030 decarbonisation target and the forthcoming White Paper<\/span><\/p>\n

Dear President Barroso,<\/p>\n

I wish to express my serious concerns that the process for determining the EU\u2019s 2030 decarbonisation target is being conducted in a vacuum of scientific evidence, and that the proposed target fails to quantify honestly the EU\u2019s high-level statements and international obligations on climate change.<\/p>\n

The\u00a0Green Paper<\/a>\u00a0\u201cA 2030 framework for climate and energy policies\u201d<\/em><\/a>[1]\u00a0asserts that\u00a0\u201cemissions would need to be reduced by 40% in the EU to be \u2026 consistent with the internationally agreed target to limit atmospheric warming to below 2\u00b0C\u201d.<\/em>\u00a0Whilst the 40% target hides a suite of inappropriate assumptions<\/a>[2], my strongest reservations refer to [1] the abuse of probabilities of 2\u00b0C; and [2] the highly inequitable distribution of the 2\u00b0C emission budget between non-Annex 1 and Annex 1 nations.<\/p>\n

[1] The abuse of probabilities
\n<\/strong>From the\u00a0Copenhagen Accord<\/a><\/a>[3]\u00a0through to the\u00a0Camp David Declaration<\/a><\/a>[4]<\/span><\/span>,<\/span>\u00a0signatories commit to holding \u201cthe increase in global temperature below 2\u00b0C\u201d\u00a0<\/em>and to taking action\u00a0\u201cto meet this objective consistent with science and on the basis of equity\u201d<\/em>. Echoing this, as Commission President you reaffirmed that the EU had\u00a0\u201cset in stone a commitment to cap the temperature increase at 2 degrees Celsius\u201d\u00a0<\/em>and that in translating this into policy the EU would\u00a0\u201crespect climate science\u201d<\/em><\/a>[5]. Moreover, as the Commission\u2019s proposal to COP19 made clear, \u201cif we fail to achieve\u00a0<\/em>[the 2 degree]\u00a0objective\u201d<\/em>\u00a0we will \u201cface devastating impacts\u201d<\/em><\/a>[6].<\/em><\/p>\n

According to the IPCC\u2019s taxonomy of probabilities<\/a>[7], both the language of international agreements and your statements as Commission President relate to a high probability of\u00a0not exceeding<\/em>\u00a02\u00b0C: quantitatively between 1 and 10%. In stark contrast, the analysis informing much of the debate on the EU 2030 targets is premised on a 50% to 70% chance of\u00a0exceeding<\/em>\u00a02\u00b0C. This misrepresentation of probabilities has dramatic consequences for the necessary scale of mitigation. For example, a 60% chance of exceeding 2\u00b0C has a carbon budget twice as large as that for a 10% chance.<\/p>\n

[2] Inequitable apportionment of the remaining 2\u00b0C carbon budget
\n<\/strong>Only by relying on the absurd supposition that non-Annex 1 nations will peak their emissions before 2020 \u2013 apparent in the Stern Review and most contemporary 2\u00b0C emission scenarios \u2013 can mitigation rates for Annex 1 nations be maintained at politically expedient levels (typically 3-4% p.a.).<\/p>\n

If, instead, non-Annex 1 emissions were to peak by 2025 and rapidly reduce thereafter (still extremely challenging assumptions), then the EU would need to make immediate emissions reductions of approximately 10% p.a., arriving at a 2030 decarbonisation target of around 80%. The mathematics of safeguarding any reasonable probability of 2\u00b0C is inescapable, yet such levels of mitigation are far beyond anything countenanced by those engaged in debates on the EU 2030 targets.<\/p>\n

Global emissions today are 60% higher than at the time of the first IPCC report in 1990, and in the six years since the last IPCC report (AR4) a further 200 billion tonnes of CO2\u00a0<\/sub>have been released into the atmosphere. As a result, in 2013 the scale of mitigation required is now an order of magnitude more challenging than it was in 1990. The EU must acknowledge this reality if it is ever to catalyse meaningful action on climate change. This demands the courage to pursue an equitable and science-based 2030 decarbonisation target of around 80%. Anything less and the EU will renege on its 2\u00b0C commitments and, as the Commission rightly notes, bequeath to future generations a legacy of\u00a0\u201cdevastating impacts\u201d<\/em>.<\/p>\n

Yours sincerely,<\/p>\n

Kevin<\/p>\n

Kevin Anderson
\nProfessor of Energy and Climate Change
\nDeputy Director of the\u00a0Tyndall Centre for\u00a0Climate Change\u00a0Research
\n<\/a>University of\u00a0Manchester<\/p>\n

PA- Amrita Sidhu, amrita.sidhu@manchester.ac.uk
\n<\/a>tel: +44(0)161 306\u00a03700<\/p>\n

\n

[1]<\/span>\u00a0Green Paper, A 2030 framework for climate and energy policies. Brussels, 27.3.2013 COM(2013)\u00a0169 final<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

<\/a>[2]\u00a0For a detailed account of these conclusions in for Annex 1 and non-Annex 1 nations, see: Anderson K, Bows A. Beyond\u00a0 dangerous climate change: emission pathways for a new world. Phil Trans R Soc A: Math Phys Eng Sci 2011, 369:20\u201344. Available at Beyond dangerous climate change<\/a>.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

<\/a>[3]\u00a0Report of the Conference of the Parties; fifteenth session; Copenhagen, 7 to 19 December 2009.<\/p>\n

Part Two: Action taken by the Conference of the Parties FCCC\/CP\/2009\/11\/Add.1 30 March 2010<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

<\/a>[4]\u00a0Camp David Declaration: Camp David, Maryland, United States; May 18-19, 2012<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

<\/a>[5]\u00a0President Barroso on the results of the L\u2019Aquila summit European Commission \u2013\u00a0MEMO\/09\/332 \u00a0 10\/07\/2009.\u00a0http:\/\/europa.eu\/rapid\/press-release_MEMO-09-332_en.htm<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

<\/a>[6]<\/span>\u00a0Submission by Lithuania and the Eurpopean Commission of behalf of the European Union and its member\u00a0states. Vilnius, 16 September 2013 Subject: The scope, design and structure of the 2015 agreement.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

<\/a>[7]\u00a0Guidance Note for Lead Authors of the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report on Consistent Treatment of\u00a0Uncertainties. IPCC Cross-Working Group Meeting on Consistent Treatment of Uncertainties. Jasper\u00a0Ridge, CA, USA. 6-7 July 2010<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

 <\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Below is an open letter (dated 13th Dec. 2013) to the President of the European Commission, Jos\u00e9 Manuel Barroso, outlining how, if the EU is to \u201cset in stone a commitment to cap the temperature increase at 2 degrees Celsius\u201d it must double its proposed 2030 decarbonisation target. As the letter makes clear, for the EU to honour this commitment the Commission must find the courage to pursue an equitable and science-based 2030 decarbonisation target of around 80%. Anything less and the EU will renege on its 2\u00b0C commitments and, as the Commission rightly notes, bequeath to future generations a\u2026<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mi_skip_tracking":false,"_s2mail":"yes"},"categories":[6],"tags":[],"blocksy_meta":{"styles_descriptor":{"styles":{"desktop":"","tablet":"","mobile":""},"google_fonts":[],"version":5}},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"http:\/\/kevinanderson.info\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1187"}],"collection":[{"href":"http:\/\/kevinanderson.info\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"http:\/\/kevinanderson.info\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/kevinanderson.info\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/kevinanderson.info\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=1187"}],"version-history":[{"count":20,"href":"http:\/\/kevinanderson.info\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1187\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":1418,"href":"http:\/\/kevinanderson.info\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1187\/revisions\/1418"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"http:\/\/kevinanderson.info\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=1187"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/kevinanderson.info\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=1187"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/kevinanderson.info\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=1187"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}